Marcelo Carvalho
Executive Director / Chief Economist - Brazil
Morgan Stanley

PhD in Economics, several awards for research excellence, nine years of experience as chief economist for Brazil at top international investment banks, and two years at the International Monetary Fund. Strong analytical abilities, excellent communication and presentation skills. Solid professional reputation, frequently quoted by the media (in Brazil and abroad) for views on the economy and on the markets.

EDUCATION BACKGROUND

• PhD in Economics at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, U.S.A. Fields: International Economics and Development Economics. Dissertation on international trade and economic performance in Brazil, thesis defended in April 1995.
• Master of Science and Arts in Economics. University of São Paulo, Brazil, July 1991. Dissertation on Brazil-Argentina Economic Integration.
• Bachelor of Arts in Economics; University of São Paulo, Brazil, December 1988.

HONORS

• Several annual awards by Institutional Investor and Latin Finance magazines since 1995 for his macroeconomic coverage of Brazil.
  Prêmio Moinho Santista 1995, national award for master’s dissertation on Mercosur.
• Langhoff Memorial Award 1993, University of Illinois, best graduate student.
• Prêmio Brazil de Economia 1988, Bank of Brazil and Federal Council of Economics. Nationwide award, best undergraduate monograph, on Brazil-Argentina economic integration.
• Prêmio USP de Economia 1988, University of São Paulo, Brazil, best undergraduate student.
   

EMPLOYMENT HISTORY

1. 2007 June - Present. Morgan Stanley's chief economist for Brazil, based in São Paulo.
    
2. 2005- 2007. The International Monetary Fund, in Washington DC. Economist at the International Capital Markets department. Member of the Brazil team, joining offiical IMF missions to Brazil.
    
3. (2004 – 2005 ) – ING Bank’s chief economist for Brazil. Provides macroeconomic research on Brazil. Supports the trading desk, writes reports, makes forecasts, delivers presentations to internal and external clients.
    
4. (2003 April – 2004 May) – Itaú Corretora’s chief economist. Provided macroeconomic analysis on Brazil for the brokerage arm of Itaú (a large Brazilian bank), based in São Paulo. Wrote reports, elaborated forecasts, prepared macroeconomic scenarios, delivered presentations to clients in Brazil and abroad.
    
5. (2002 May - 2003 February) - Bank of America’s head of research for Latin America. Joined the bank as chief economist and strategist for Brazil, and was promoted to head of Latin America research in September 2002, supervising analysts in Brazil, Mexico and in the U.S. Implemented economic and strategy research at BofA Brazil. Supported the local trading desk and other areas of the bank. Delivered presentations to clients, wrote reports and trade ideas, and acted as the bank’s spokesperson on macroeconomic issues.
    
6. (1995 August - 2002 May) - JPMorgan’s chief economist for Brazil. Provided macroeconomic coverage for Brazil. Produced economic forecasts, followed data releases, formulated the bank’s view on Brazil, published regular reports and special studies, supported the local office, made regular conference calls, delivered presentations to clients in Brazil and in road-shows abroad. Correctly predicted, one year ahead of the event, the 1999 change in Brazil’s foreign exchange regime, thereby helping the bank to achieve substantial profits. Accurately predicted in late 2001 - against the consensus view of the time - that the trade balance in would improve dramatically in 2002 amid lower foreign capital inflows, soft domestic demand and a weak currency. This prediction helped clients achieve significant gains.
    
7. (1994 May-September) - The World Bank, Eastern Africa Department. Wrote a paper entitled “Implementing the Cross-border Initiative in East Africa: trade liberalization in the context of the East Africa Cooperation (Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania)”. The policy paper was presented to the three governments, the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the African Development Bank in Nairobi in August 1994.